China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 35.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 105.0
- Upside to median
- +5.0%
- Last close
- $51.52
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +37.0%
- P75
- +22.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -7.0%
- P10
- -22.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Building-block model: 2.6% dividend yield plus about 5-6% earnings growth plus modest convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from about 23% annualized volatility reflecting policy and geopolitical risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.0%
- P75
- +13.5%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -6.0%
Same building blocks compounded over three years with fuller valuation convergence and volatility scaled by the square root of time.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.38%
- Modeled excess
- +3.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | $51.52 | +8.0% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $24.60 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $3.99 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $31.00 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.55 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $39.87 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $23.38 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $34.66 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.31 | — |