Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 53.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 0–210 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 97.0
- Upside to median
- -3.0%
- Last close
- $42.32
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +60.0%
- P75
- +30.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -45.0%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No cash flows or carry: return is modeled as partial convergence toward the fair-value distribution with an annualized volatility near 45% and right skew; low confidence.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +40.0%
- P75
- +22.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -12.0%
- P10
- -28.0%
Adoption-driven drift with very wide dispersion; indicative only.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.38%
- Modeled excess
- -1.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury offers a higher median return with far lower uncertainty.