US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 74.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 26% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 91.5
- Upside to median
- -8.5%
- Last close
- $752.69
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +14.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -4.5%
- P10
- -15.5%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Building-block model: 1.2% dividend yield plus about 6-7% growth in forward earnings, less about 2 percentage points from partial (about 20% per year) convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from about 15% annualized volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -0.5%
- P10
- -5.0%
Same building blocks compounded over three years with fuller valuation convergence and partial margin normalization; volatility scaled by the square root of time.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.38%
- Modeled excess
- +1.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury offers a competitive return with far lower uncertainty.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.5Expensive | 91.5 | $752.69 | +5.5% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $523.33 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $282.51 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $679.35 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $220.95 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $487.41 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $57.99 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $168.89 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $188.33 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $121.01 | — |