Energy
Today’s price sits at the 74.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.0
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- Last close
- $142.66
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +30.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- -2.0%
- P25
- -16.0%
- P10
- -30.0%
47% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Spot convergence toward the official 2027 price path, partly offset by positive roll yield from a backwardated futures curve; dispersion from about 24% annualized volatility with upside supply-shock skew.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +6.0%
- Median
- -1.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
Gradual normalization toward marginal-cost pricing with fading roll yield; indicative only.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.38%
- Modeled excess
- -6.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury offers a higher median return with far lower uncertainty.