Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 36.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- Last close
- $71.62
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.6%
- P25
- +2.2%
- P10
- -0.8%
87% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting-yield model: estimated current yield to maturity near 5.3% less fees, plus a small price gain from partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from a 0.8-0.9 percentage-point one-year yield-change range times 5.7-year duration.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.3%
- P75
- +6.9%
- Median
- +5.4%
- P25
- +3.9%
- P10
- +2.3%
Starting yield dominates over three years, with reinvestment and duration effects partly offsetting each other.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.38%
- Modeled excess
- +1.2%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The 1-year Treasury offers a competitive return with far lower uncertainty.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $71.62 | +5.6% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $77.51 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $91.80 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $104.67 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.59 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $106.03 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.96 | — |