Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 55.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 45% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 98.5
- Upside to median
- -1.5%
- Last close
- $91.48
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +15.5%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -13.0%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Building-block model: 1.9% dividend yield plus buybacks and about 4% earnings growth after haircutting the implied forward step-up, with negligible valuation convergence; dispersion from about 15% annualized volatility including yen exposure.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.5%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.0%
Same building blocks compounded over three years with volatility scaled by the square root of time.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.38%
- Modeled excess
- +2.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.