Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 64.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.0
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- Last close
- $97.30
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -14.0%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Building-block model: distribution yield near 3.5-4% plus about 3-4% sustainable FFO growth, less partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from about 15% annualized volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -3.5%
Same building blocks compounded over three years with volatility scaled by the square root of time.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.38%
- Modeled excess
- +0.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The edge over Treasuries is thin relative to the risk.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | -0.9Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $97.30 | +5.0% |
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $27.36 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $17.40 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $95.62 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $28.69 | — |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $44.64 | — |