Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 30.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 69% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 107.0
- Upside to median
- +7.0%
- Last close
- $56.61
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +31.0%
- P75
- +19.5%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Building-block model: 2.2% dividend yield plus about 6% sustainable earnings growth after haircutting the forward estimate step-up, plus partial (about 20% per year) convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from about 18% annualized volatility with mild positive skew.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -3.5%
Same building blocks compounded over three years with fuller valuation convergence and volatility scaled by the square root of time.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.38%
- Modeled excess
- +4.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 107.0 | $56.61 | +8.5% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $88.58 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $95.65 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $142.10 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $32.61 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $69.19 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $51.41 | — |