Valuation Lens — November 8, 2026
Real estate, China and emerging-market equities screen modestly cheap; oil-linked energy screens most expensive as a conflict premium holds Brent near $98, and U.S. large caps sit somewhat above modeled fair value despite a 17.7x forward multiple.
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
A 4.33% one-year Treasury par yield and a 2.63% 10-year real yield near the top of their 20-year ranges set a demanding hurdle that every risk asset's modeled return must clear.
- 10y Treasury
- 4.9%
- 10y real
- 2.6%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- Real EstateVNQ+1.0Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 106.097.0–114.0
- Upside to median
- +6.0%
- 1y modeled
- +8.0%-12.0% to 25.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.7%
- +0.9Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 106.096.0–116.0
- Upside to median
- +6.0%
- 1y modeled
- +8.0%-16.0% to 30.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.7%
- +0.7Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 104.095.0–114.0
- Upside to median
- +4.0%
- 1y modeled
- +7.5%-15.0% to 27.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.2%
- +0.4Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 102.095.0–109.0
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-10.0% to 21.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.7%
- Fixed IncomeBND+0.3Fair
- Median fair value
- 100.597.8–103.2
- Upside to median
- +0.5%
- 1y modeled
- +5.3%0.5% to 9.8%
- vs Treasury
- +1.0%
- +0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 101.093.0–108.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.5%-12.0% to 23.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.2%
- CryptoBTC-USD-0.3Fair
- Median fair value
- 95.075.0–118.0
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- 1y modeled
- +2.0%-45.0% to 65.0%
- vs Treasury
- -2.3%
- US EquitiesSPY-0.9Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 96.089.0–103.0
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.5%-12.0% to 21.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.2%
- -1.1Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 95.088.0–102.0
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.0%-11.0% to 19.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.7%
- MetalsSLV-1.1Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 93.084.0–103.0
- Upside to median
- -7.0%
- 1y modeled
- +3.0%-25.0% to 32.0%
- vs Treasury
- -1.3%
- EnergyUSO-1.4Expensive
- Median fair value
- 91.082.0–101.0
- Upside to median
- -9.0%
- 1y modeled
- -4.0%-32.0% to 28.0%
- vs Treasury
- -8.3%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 33.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 35.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 38.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 42.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 57% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 45.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 46.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 55.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 45% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–210 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 64.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 67.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 67.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 72.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Sources15
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4P/E Ratios by Country 2026Siblis Research
- 5Emerging Markets P/E & Valuations 2026Siblis Research
- 6Europe P/E Ratio & Valuations 2026Siblis Research
- 7European Stocks: Reasons to ReconsiderCharles Schwab
- 8Compelling Valuations in JapanHennessy Funds
- 9
- 10The State of REITs: October 2026 Edition2nd Market Capital Advisory
- 11Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 6, 2026 release)U.S. Energy Information Administration
- 12
- 13Gold - Price - Chart - Historical Data - NewsTrading Economics
- 14
- 15
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- vl-2026-11-08-001
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.