Europe Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VGK · Europe Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 42.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 57% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 102.0
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- Last close
- $87.31
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-11-06
68/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +21.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -10.0%
72% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend and buyback yield of about 4.5% plus 3%-5% earnings growth plus small partial convergence toward the median fair value, in U.S. dollars with currency dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.5%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -2.0%
Total shareholder yield plus normalized earnings growth with a stable multiple, annualized.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +2.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled median exceeds the 1-year Treasury by 2.67 points; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments