Real Estate
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VNQ · US Real Estate
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 33.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 106.0
- Upside to median
- +6.0%
- Last close
- $95.73
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-11-06
67/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -1.5%
- P10
- -12.0%
71% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Distribution yield of about 3.9% plus 2-3% FFO growth plus partial (25%) convergence toward the median fair value, with dispersion scaled to REIT index volatility and rate sensitivity.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.5%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -3.0%
Income plus FFO growth plus gradual NAV-discount normalization over three years, annualized.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +3.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled median return exceeds the 1-year Treasury by 3.67 points, with a wide range that includes losses; this is a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | +1.0Somewhat cheap | 106.0 | $95.73 | +8.0% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $44.00 | — |
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $26.95 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $94.87 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $27.92 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $17.20 | — |