Energy
Today’s price sits at the 72.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 91.0
- Upside to median
- -9.0%
- Last close
- $148.41
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- -4.0%
- P25
- -18.0%
- P10
- -32.0%
43% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Futures-based return scenarios: expected spot decline toward official forecasts partly offset by positive roll yield in a backwardated curve and collateral interest, with fat-tailed upside from supply disruption.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +10.0%
- P75
- +4.0%
- Median
- -2.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -14.0%
Normalization of crude toward marginal cost over three years, partly offset by roll yield and collateral income, annualized.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- -8.3%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled median trails the 1-year Treasury by 8.33 points; the Treasury offers a clearly better expected return with far lower uncertainty.