Emerging Markets Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 38.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 104.0
- Upside to median
- +4.0%
- Last close
- $55.29
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-06
61/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -15.0%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of about 2.8% plus haircut earnings growth plus partial (25%) convergence toward the median fair value, with dispersion scaled to EM volatility and currency risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.5%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -4.5%
Income plus normalized earnings growth plus gradual partial valuation normalization, annualized.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +3.2%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled median exceeds the 1-year Treasury by 3.17 points, with wide currency and earnings uncertainty around it.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $55.29 | +7.5% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $85.35 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $89.24 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $137.01 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $50.89 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $31.98 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $67.06 | — |