Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 45.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.5
- Upside to median
- +0.5%
- Last close
- $71.54
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +9.8%
- P75
- +7.6%
- Median
- +5.3%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- +0.5%
92% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting yield to worst of 5.24% as carry plus duration-weighted price change from a distribution of 12-month yield shifts centered near zero (standard deviation about 85 bp), less expected credit losses of about 5 bp.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +7.6%
- P75
- +6.4%
- Median
- +5.2%
- P25
- +4.0%
- P10
- +2.6%
Starting yield anchors the three-year annualized return; rate shocks are partly offset by reinvestment at new yields.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- direct
The aggregate bond index is modeled to earn about 0.97 points more than the 1-year Treasury, a small edge for taking 5.8 years of duration.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.3Fair | 100.5 | $71.54 | +5.3% |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.60 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $91.82 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.85 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $106.27 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $104.53 | — |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $77.23 | — |