US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 64.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.0
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- Last close
- $735.29
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +21.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -12.0%
69% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend and net buyback yield of about 1.5% plus 8%-10% forward earnings growth, less a partial (30%) multiple adjustment toward the median fair value, with dispersion scaled to large-cap volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.0%
Shareholder yield plus earnings growth with partial margin normalization and gradual multiple convergence, annualized.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +2.2%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled median exceeds the 1-year Treasury by 2.17 points, a thin edge for equity risk; the Treasury offers a competitive return with far lower uncertainty.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -0.9Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $735.29 | +6.5% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $656.54 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $463.61 | — |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $512.22 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $216.05 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $273.67 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $57.16 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $162.67 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $184.80 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $117.58 | — |