Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 55.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 45% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–210 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 95.0
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- Last close
- $42.88
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +65.0%
- P75
- +30.0%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -45.0%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario mixture of cost-basis reversion, ETF and treasury demand growth and drawdown regimes, centered slightly below fair-value convergence because the asset produces no cash flow; dispersion scaled to realized bitcoin volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +20.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -25.0%
Adoption and supply-issuance scenarios over three years, annualized; low reliability given the absence of cash-flow anchors.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- -2.3%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled median trails the 1-year Treasury by 2.33 points with extremely wide uncertainty; the Treasury offers a competitive return with far lower risk.