China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 35.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 106.0
- Upside to median
- +6.0%
- Last close
- $51.96
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +30.0%
- P75
- +19.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of about 2.5% plus 6%-7% forward earnings growth plus partial (25%) convergence toward the median fair value, with dispersion scaled to the benchmark's historically high volatility and policy risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -6.0%
Income plus earnings growth plus gradual partial normalization of the valuation discount, annualized.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +3.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled median exceeds the 1-year Treasury by 3.67 points, but the range is very wide and the historical base rate of beating cash was only about 49%.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 106.0 | $51.96 | +8.0% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $24.60 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $3.99 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $30.50 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.87 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $40.19 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $23.32 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $34.95 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.88 | — |