Metals
Today’s price sits at the 67.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.0
- Upside to median
- -7.0%
- Last close
- $46.87
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +32.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -25.0%
56% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario mixture of partial fair-value convergence, safe-haven and central-bank demand shocks and industrial-cycle swings; no carry for physical metals, with dispersion scaled to realized silver volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -11.0%
Gradual partial convergence toward composite fair value plus inflation drift, annualized.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- -1.3%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled median trails the 1-year Treasury by 1.33 points with very wide uncertainty; the Treasury offers a competitive return with far lower risk.