Developed Pacific Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWA · Australia Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 67.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.0
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- Last close
- $29.17
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-06
59/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +19.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -11.0%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of about 3.5% plus 3%-5% earnings growth, less a partial (25%) multiple adjustment toward the median fair value, in U.S. dollars with currency dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.5%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -2.5%
Dividend yield plus earnings growth with gradual multiple compression, annualized.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +0.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled median exceeds the 1-year Treasury by only 0.67 points; the Treasury offers a nearly equal return with far less risk.