Valuation Lens — November 5, 2026

Core bonds screen near fair value; US, European, Pacific and energy prices sit above modeled economic value with the 10-year real yield at 2.6%.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

November 5, 2026Last market session Nov 5, 2026Data cutoff Nov 5, 2026, 6:43 PM EST

The hurdle to beat

4.28%1y Treasury

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.28% sets the hurdle, while a 10-year real yield of 2.60% (98th percentile of the past decade) keeps discount rates high for long-duration assets.

10y Treasury: 4.8%
10y real: 2.6%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Fixed IncomeBND
+0.2
Fair
Median fair value
100.298.6–102.0
Upside to median
+0.2%
1y modeled
+5.2%-0.6% to 10.3%
vs Treasury
+0.9%
Real EstateVNQ
-0.1
Fair
Median fair value
99.592.8–105.6
Upside to median
-0.5%
1y modeled
+6.0%-13.2% to 22.7%
vs Treasury
+1.7%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
-0.3
Fair
Median fair value
98.087.9–107.4
Upside to median
-2.0%
1y modeled
+7.0%-18.6% to 31.4%
vs Treasury
+2.7%
US EquitiesSPY
-0.8
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
95.586.8–103.9
Upside to median
-4.5%
1y modeled
+6.8%-13.7% to 24.7%
vs Treasury
+2.5%
CryptoBTC-USD
-0.8
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
90.073.1–110.2
Upside to median
-10.0%
1y modeled
+3.0%-41.9% to 60.7%
vs Treasury
-1.3%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-0.9
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.089.3–103.1
Upside to median
-4.0%
1y modeled
+7.0%-12.2% to 24.9%
vs Treasury
+2.7%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
-1.0
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
95.086.2–103.1
Upside to median
-5.0%
1y modeled
+7.5%-15.6% to 28.0%
vs Treasury
+3.2%
MetalsGLD
-1.2
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
92.083.2–102.1
Upside to median
-8.0%
1y modeled
+2.0%-17.2% to 23.8%
vs Treasury
-2.3%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-1.9
Expensive
Median fair value
92.085.3–98.1
Upside to median
-8.0%
1y modeled
+6.5%-12.7% to 23.2%
vs Treasury
+2.2%
EnergyUSO
-2.0
Expensive
Median fair value
84.075.2–95.5
Upside to median
-16.0%
1y modeled
-3.0%-35.0% to 35.4%
vs Treasury
-7.3%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-2.2
Expensive
Median fair value
89.082.9–95.7
Upside to median
-11.0%
1y modeled
+5.5%-12.4% to 20.9%
vs Treasury
+1.2%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-11-05, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Fixed Income BND	+0.2 Fair	100.2 98.6–102.0	+0.2%	+5.2% -0.6% to 10.3%	+0.9%
Real Estate VNQ	-0.1 Fair	99.5 92.8–105.6	-0.5%	+6.0% -13.2% to 22.7%	+1.7%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	-0.3 Fair	98.0 87.9–107.4	-2.0%	+7.0% -18.6% to 31.4%	+2.7%
US Equities SPY	-0.8 Somewhat expensive	95.5 86.8–103.9	-4.5%	+6.8% -13.7% to 24.7%	+2.5%
Crypto BTC-USD	-0.8 Somewhat expensive	90.0 73.1–110.2	-10.0%	+3.0% -41.9% to 60.7%	-1.3%
Japan Equities EWJ	-0.9 Somewhat expensive	96.0 89.3–103.1	-4.0%	+7.0% -12.2% to 24.9%	+2.7%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	-1.0 Somewhat expensive	95.0 86.2–103.1	-5.0%	+7.5% -15.6% to 28.0%	+3.2%
Metals GLD	-1.2 Somewhat expensive	92.0 83.2–102.1	-8.0%	+2.0% -17.2% to 23.8%	-2.3%
Europe Equities VGK	-1.9 Expensive	92.0 85.3–98.1	-8.0%	+6.5% -12.7% to 23.2%	+2.2%
Energy USO	-2.0 Expensive	84.0 75.2–95.5	-16.0%	-3.0% -35.0% to 35.4%	-7.3%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-2.2 Expensive	89.0 82.9–95.7	-11.0%	+5.5% -12.4% to 20.9%	+1.2%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 46.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 52.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 54%

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

-0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 55.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 44% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 49%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-0.8Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 64.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 85%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

-0.8Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 63.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 10–210 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-0.9Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 64.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 35% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 69%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

-1.0Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 66.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 68%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.2Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 70.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 45%Historical base rate: 71%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-1.9Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 81.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 80%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-2.0Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 82.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 17% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 40%Historical base rate: 62%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-2.2Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 86.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 14% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 68%

Sources7

1
P/E Ratios by Country 2026
Siblis Research
2
Europe P/E Ratio & Valuations 2026
Siblis Research
3
EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year (October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook)
U.S. Energy Information Administration
4
Markets at the Crossroads: What J.P. Morgan's 4Q 2026 Guide Tells Advisors Now
AdvisorAnalyst.com
5
JPMorgan BetaBuilders U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF — Product Snapshot
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
6
Why Bitcoin Might Not Reach The Realized Price Again
Look Into Bitcoin
7
3 gold demand trends in Q2 2026: Jewellery and ETFs fall, central bank buying soars 411%
Upstox (summarising World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026)

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: vl_20261105_001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.