Europe Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VGK · Europe Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 81.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.0
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- Last close
- $88.42
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-11-05
65/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.2%
- P75
- +15.3%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -3.6%
- P10
- -12.7%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Haircut forward EPS growth plus a 3.2% dividend yield, less partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion includes euro and sterling risk for a US-dollar investor.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.7%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +1.3%
- P10
- -3.0%
Earnings growth near nominal GDP plus dividends, with partial multiple normalization toward the long-run average.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.28%
- Modeled excess
- +2.2%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled edge over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return. Dividend income supports return despite the valuation gap.
Instruments