Crypto
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
BTC-USD · Bitcoin
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 63.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–210 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 90.0
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- Last close
- $43.03
- Confidence
- low-moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-05
43/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +60.7%
- P75
- +33.4%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -20.6%
- P10
- -41.9%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No carry; partial convergence toward the median MVRV-regime value plus adoption drift, with very wide dispersion.
Three years, annualised
unavailable- P90
- —
- P75
- —
- Median
- —
- P25
- —
- P10
- —
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.28%
- Modeled excess
- -1.3%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled median return falls short of the 1-year Treasury par yield, with far higher uncertainty.