China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 55.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 44% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 98.0
- Upside to median
- -2.0%
- Last close
- $52.04
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +31.4%
- P75
- +19.8%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -6.5%
- P10
- -18.6%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Forward EPS growth near 7% plus a 2.8% dividend yield, with a small valuation-convergence term and wide policy and geopolitical dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.4%
- P75
- +11.2%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -0.9%
- P10
- -6.7%
Earnings growth plus dividends with partial multiple normalization over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.28%
- Modeled excess
- +2.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled edge over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return. The historical base rate for this benchmark is only about 49%.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | -0.3Fair | 98.0 | $52.04 | +7.0% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $24.94 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.07 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $30.56 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.73 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $40.29 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $23.21 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $34.94 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.76 | — |