Energy
Today’s price sits at the 82.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 17% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 84.0
- Upside to median
- -16.0%
- Last close
- $148.21
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +35.4%
- P75
- +17.2%
- Median
- -3.0%
- P25
- -19.9%
- P10
- -35.0%
46% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Expected spot decline along the official supply-recovery path, partly offset by positive roll yield in a backwardated futures curve and Treasury-bill collateral income.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.7%
- P75
- +4.8%
- Median
- -4.0%
- P25
- -12.1%
- P10
- -19.4%
Spot normalization toward marginal cost with diminishing roll yield as the curve flattens.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.28%
- Modeled excess
- -7.3%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled median return is well below the 1-year Treasury par yield, with very high uncertainty in both directions.