Japan Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 64.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 35% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.0
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- Last close
- $88.26
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-05
63/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.9%
- P75
- +16.4%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -3.1%
- P10
- -12.2%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Forward EPS growth near 8% plus a 2.3% dividend yield and buybacks, with partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion includes currency risk for a US-dollar investor.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.5%
- P75
- +10.6%
- Median
- +6.2%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -2.8%
Earnings growth plus shareholder yield with partial multiple normalization toward 14x.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.28%
- Modeled excess
- +2.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled edge over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments