Developed Pacific Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWA · Australia Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 86.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 14% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 89.0
- Upside to median
- -11.0%
- Last close
- $29.25
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-05
61/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +20.9%
- P75
- +13.6%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -3.9%
- P10
- -12.4%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Forward EPS growth near 6% plus a 3.8% dividend yield, less partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion includes Australian-dollar risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +8.7%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +0.6%
- P10
- -3.3%
Earnings growth plus dividends with partial multiple normalization toward 16x.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.28%
- Modeled excess
- +1.2%
- Basis
- direct
A thin modeled edge over the 1-year Treasury par yield; Treasury offers a similar return with far less uncertainty.