Fixed Income
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
BND · US Broad Bond Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 46.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.2
- Upside to median
- +0.2%
- Last close
- $71.65
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-11-05
79/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +10.3%
- P75
- +7.9%
- Median
- +5.2%
- P25
- +2.2%
- P10
- -0.6%
88% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting aggregate yield (carry) plus duration-weighted price change across justified-yield scenarios, with rate volatility of roughly 70bp a year.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +7.7%
- P75
- +6.4%
- Median
- +5.1%
- P25
- +3.6%
- P10
- +2.3%
Starting yield to maturity as the dominant anchor for a holding period close to duration, with reinvestment and spread-change ranges.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.28%
- Modeled excess
- +0.9%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled edge over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return. The bill rates are quoted on a discount basis.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.2Fair | 100.2 | $71.65 | +5.2% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $77.28 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $91.97 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $104.66 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.67 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $106.26 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.93 | — |