Metals
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
GLD · Gold
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 70.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.0
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- Last close
- $375.49
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-05
57/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.8%
- P75
- +13.5%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -8.1%
- P10
- -17.2%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No carry; official-sector demand drift offset by the opportunity cost of high real yields and partial convergence toward median fair value.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +8.6%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -2.9%
- P10
- -7.8%
Inflation-linked drift plus central-bank demand, less partial real-price normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.28%
- Modeled excess
- -2.3%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled median return trails the 1-year Treasury par yield; gold's portfolio role is diversification rather than expected edge.
Instruments