US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 64.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.5
- Upside to median
- -4.5%
- Last close
- $733.00
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.7%
- P75
- +16.2%
- Median
- +6.8%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -13.7%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Forward EPS growth near 9% plus a 1.2% dividend yield, partial (one-quarter) convergence toward median fair value and an estimate-revision haircut; dispersion reflects equity volatility and margin risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.3%
- P75
- +9.6%
- Median
- +5.6%
- P25
- +0.9%
- P10
- -3.4%
Three-year EPS growth near 8-10% a year plus shareholder yield, with partial multiple normalization toward 17x.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.28%
- Modeled excess
- +2.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled edge over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return. The edge is small relative to equity dispersion.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 95.5 | $733.00 | +6.8% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $514.27 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $270.98 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $647.05 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $216.87 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $447.73 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $57.50 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $162.47 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $184.91 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $117.64 | — |