Emerging Markets Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 66.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.0
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- Last close
- $54.24
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-05
56/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.0%
- P75
- +18.3%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -4.6%
- P10
- -15.6%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Forward EPS growth after a peak-cycle haircut plus a 2.8% dividend yield, with partial convergence toward median fair value; wide dispersion for currency and semiconductor-cycle risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.4%
- P75
- +11.9%
- Median
- +6.8%
- P25
- +1.1%
- P10
- -4.1%
Earnings growth plus dividends with partial normalization of cyclical semiconductor earnings.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.28%
- Modeled excess
- +3.2%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled edge over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return. Dispersion is wide.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | -1.0Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | $54.24 | +7.5% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $82.92 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $85.88 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $131.65 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $31.76 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $66.90 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $50.02 | — |