Valuation Lens — November 3, 2026
Most asset classes sit close to modeled fair value; developed Pacific equities, crude oil and US large caps screen expensive, and bitcoin screens somewhat cheap against its on-chain cost basis.
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
A 4.40% 1-year Treasury par yield and a 2.65% 10-year real yield, near the top of their 10-year ranges, set a demanding hurdle and discount rate for every risk asset.
- 10y Treasury
- 5.0%
- 10y real
- 2.7%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- CryptoBTC-USD+0.5Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 105.088.2–123.5
- Upside to median
- +5.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.0%-50.0% to 80.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.6%
- Fixed IncomeBND-0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.998.2–101.5
- Upside to median
- -0.1%
- 1y modeled
- +5.4%-0.5% to 11.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.0%
- -0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.391.4–107.6
- Upside to median
- -0.8%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-26.0% to 40.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.6%
- -0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.192.8–105.6
- Upside to median
- -0.9%
- 1y modeled
- +6.5%-14.0% to 25.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.1%
- -0.3Fair
- Median fair value
- 98.992.8–105.4
- Upside to median
- -1.1%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-15.0% to 25.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.6%
- -0.4Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 98.290.8–106.5
- Upside to median
- -1.8%
- 1y modeled
- +8.0%-20.0% to 34.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.6%
- MetalsGLD-0.5Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 97.488.8–105.7
- Upside to median
- -2.6%
- 1y modeled
- +2.0%-20.0% to 24.0%
- vs Treasury
- -2.4%
- Real EstateVNQ-1.0Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 96.390.8–101.9
- Upside to median
- -3.7%
- 1y modeled
- +6.5%-16.0% to 27.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.1%
- US EquitiesSPY-1.4Expensive
- Median fair value
- 94.689.0–100.5
- Upside to median
- -5.4%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-15.5% to 24.5%
- vs Treasury
- +1.6%
- EnergyUSO-1.5Expensive
- Median fair value
- 89.279.1–100.2
- Upside to median
- -10.9%
- 1y modeled
- -6.0%-42.0% to 32.0%
- vs Treasury
- -10.4%
- -2.0Expensive
- Median fair value
- 91.485.7–97.5
- Upside to median
- -8.6%
- 1y modeled
- +4.5%-15.0% to 23.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.1%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 42.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 52.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 52.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 53.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 54.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 45% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 56.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 44% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 58.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 42% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 67.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 73.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 74.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 82.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 17% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Sources11
- 1
- 2Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2026 release)U.S. Energy Information Administration
- 3
- 4
- 5MSCI China IndexMSCI
- 6MSCI Japan IndexMSCI
- 7
- 8
- 9
- 10
- 11
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- cxpw-valuation-lens-2026-11-03-261103001
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.