Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 52.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 99.9
- Upside to median
- -0.1%
- Last close
- $71.20
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +11.0%
- P75
- +8.3%
- Median
- +5.4%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -0.5%
88% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting yield to maturity as carry, adjusted for the near-zero valuation gap, with a duration-based range for a plus-or-minus one percentage point move in yields; probabilities interpolated from the modeled return quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.0%
- P75
- +6.6%
- Median
- +5.3%
- P25
- +4.0%
- P10
- +2.5%
Starting yield as the dominant anchor with reinvestment at modeled yield paths; dispersion narrows as duration effects are amortized.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.40%
- Modeled excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median minus the 4.40% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The 1-year Treasury offers a competitive return with far less price risk.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | -0.1Fair | 99.9 | $71.20 | +5.4% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $76.98 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $91.16 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $103.72 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.40 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $106.10 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.11 | — |