China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 52.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 99.3
- Upside to median
- -0.8%
- Last close
- $49.40
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +40.0%
- P75
- +23.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -9.5%
- P10
- -26.0%
61% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of about 2.6% plus earnings growth haircut well below the roughly 28% implied by consensus, with negligible valuation convergence; wide range reflecting policy and earnings-revision risk. Probabilities interpolated from the modeled return quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -6.0%
Dividend yield plus mid-single-digit sustainable earnings growth with a stable multiple.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.40%
- Modeled excess
- +2.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median minus the 4.40% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $23.66 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $3.80 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $30.25 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $15.93 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $37.80 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $22.44 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $33.19 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $23.28 | — |
| MCHI China Broad Market | -0.1Fair | 99.3 | $49.40 | +7.0% |