Europe Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VGK · Europe Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 53.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 99.1
- Upside to median
- -0.9%
- Last close
- $87.54
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-11-03
65/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -14.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of about 2.9% plus mid-single-digit earnings growth after a haircut to consensus, with negligible valuation convergence; probabilities interpolated from the modeled return quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -3.0%
Dividend yield plus sustainable earnings growth with a stable multiple.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.40%
- Modeled excess
- +2.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median minus the 4.40% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments