Metals
Today’s price sits at the 58.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 42% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 97.4
- Upside to median
- -2.6%
- Last close
- $359.26
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -9.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; slight convergence toward the median fair value plus an inflation-linked drift, with dispersion consistent with gold's recent volatility; probabilities interpolated from the modeled return quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -8.0%
Inflation-linked drift with partial normalization of real yields over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.40%
- Modeled excess
- -2.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median minus the 4.40% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury currently offers a higher modeled return with far less uncertainty.