US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 73.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 94.6
- Upside to median
- -5.4%
- Last close
- $754.35
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.5%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -4.5%
- P10
- -15.5%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Shareholder yield plus next-year earnings growth haircut from consensus, less partial convergence toward the median fair value; negative skew reflects margin and rate risk. Probabilities interpolated from the modeled return quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
Shareholder yield plus earnings growth slowing from record margins, with gradual multiple compression toward rate-adjusted fair value.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.40%
- Modeled excess
- +1.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median minus the 4.40% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The edge is small relative to equity risk.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $517.06 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $279.79 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $685.28 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $219.26 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $518.52 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.4Expensive | 94.6 | $754.35 | +6.0% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $57.19 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $171.32 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $184.02 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $117.33 | — |