Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 82.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 17% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 91.4
- Upside to median
- -8.6%
- Last close
- $29.08
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of about 3.5% plus modest earnings growth, less partial convergence toward the median fair value; probabilities interpolated from the modeled return quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -5.0%
Dividend yield plus low-single-digit earnings growth with gradual multiple compression.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.40%
- Modeled excess
- +0.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median minus the 4.40% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury offers a similar modeled return with far less uncertainty.