Energy
Today’s price sits at the 74.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 89.2
- Upside to median
- -10.9%
- Last close
- $158.17
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +32.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- -6.0%
- P25
- -24.0%
- P10
- -42.0%
42% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Spot crude converging partway toward the official 2027 forecast path, partly offset by roll gains while the futures curve stays in backwardation, with very wide supply-shock dispersion; probabilities interpolated from the modeled return quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +10.0%
- P75
- +3.0%
- Median
- -5.0%
- P25
- -12.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
Normalization of crude toward marginal-cost levels as Middle East flows recover, with roll effects fading.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.40%
- Modeled excess
- -10.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median minus the 4.40% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury offers a materially higher modeled return with far less uncertainty.