Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 42.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 105.0
- Upside to median
- +5.0%
- Last close
- $44.05
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +80.0%
- P75
- +38.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -25.0%
- P10
- -50.0%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Partial convergence toward the median on-chain fair value with no income, wide fat-tailed dispersion consistent with bitcoin's realized volatility, and a haircut for net fund outflows; probabilities interpolated from the modeled return quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +20.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -12.0%
- P10
- -30.0%
Cost-basis growth plus partial multiple normalization over three years; very wide range reflecting the absence of contractual cash flows.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.40%
- Modeled excess
- +0.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median minus the 4.40% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. Dispersion is extreme relative to the edge.