Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 56.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 44% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 98.2
- Upside to median
- -1.8%
- Last close
- $55.34
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +34.0%
- P75
- +21.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of about 2.2% plus earnings growth heavily haircut from the roughly 57% implied by forward estimates, a small valuation drag and a broadly stable dollar; probabilities interpolated from the modeled return quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -6.0%
Dividend yield plus normalized earnings growth with partial reversal of cyclical earnings strength.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.40%
- Modeled excess
- +3.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median minus the 4.40% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $89.75 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $98.27 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $155.06 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $31.73 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $62.98 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $48.70 | — |
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 98.2 | $55.34 | +8.0% |