Japan Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 54.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 45% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 98.9
- Upside to median
- -1.1%
- Last close
- $92.59
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-03
64/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of about 1.9% plus earnings growth haircut from the roughly 27% implied by forward estimates, near-zero valuation convergence and unhedged currency variability; probabilities interpolated from the modeled return quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
Dividend yield and buybacks plus mid-single-digit earnings growth with a stable multiple.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.40%
- Modeled excess
- +1.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median minus the 4.40% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.