Valuation Lens — October 21, 2026

Europe, core bonds and China screen modestly cheap, while U.S. large caps and gold screen expensive against a 5.13% 10-year Treasury yield.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

October 21, 2026Last market session Oct 21, 2026Data cutoff Oct 21, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.52%1y Treasury

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.52% is the annual hurdle, while 10-year nominal and real yields of 5.13% and 2.76% sit near 20-year highs and raise discount rates for long-duration assets.

10y Treasury: 5.1%
10y real: 2.8%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Europe EquitiesVGK
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
104.697.0–112.5
Upside to median
+4.6%
1y modeled
+8.0%-11.0% to 25.0%
vs Treasury
+3.5%
Fixed IncomeBND
+0.8
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
101.398.8–103.9
Upside to median
+1.3%
1y modeled
+5.6%-0.5% to 11.0%
vs Treasury
+1.1%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+0.8
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
105.494.8–115.7
Upside to median
+5.4%
1y modeled
+7.5%-20.0% to 33.0%
vs Treasury
+3.0%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+0.6
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
103.694.6–112.8
Upside to median
+3.6%
1y modeled
+8.0%-15.0% to 28.0%
vs Treasury
+3.5%
CryptoBTC-USD
+0.2
Fair
Median fair value
103.181.7–125.6
Upside to median
+3.1%
1y modeled
+3.0%-50.0% to 85.0%
vs Treasury
-1.5%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
+0.1
Fair
Median fair value
100.693.6–107.8
Upside to median
+0.6%
1y modeled
+6.5%-12.0% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
+2.0%
Real EstateVNQ
-0.5
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
97.489.5–105.0
Upside to median
-2.6%
1y modeled
+6.0%-14.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
+1.5%
EnergyXLE
-0.6
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.487.2–105.4
Upside to median
-3.6%
1y modeled
+3.0%-20.0% to 25.0%
vs Treasury
-1.5%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-1.2
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
94.487.2–101.4
Upside to median
-5.6%
1y modeled
+5.5%-13.0% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
+1.0%
MetalsGLD
-1.5
Expensive
Median fair value
89.478.8–99.7
Upside to median
-10.6%
1y modeled
+1.5%-22.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
-3.0%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.7
Expensive
Median fair value
91.884.1–99.0
Upside to median
-8.2%
1y modeled
+6.0%-14.0% to 22.5%
vs Treasury
+1.5%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-10-21, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Europe Equities VGK	+0.9 Somewhat cheap	104.6 97.0–112.5	+4.6%	+8.0% -11.0% to 25.0%	+3.5%
Fixed Income BND	+0.8 Somewhat cheap	101.3 98.8–103.9	+1.3%	+5.6% -0.5% to 11.0%	+1.1%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+0.8 Somewhat cheap	105.4 94.8–115.7	+5.4%	+7.5% -20.0% to 33.0%	+3.0%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+0.6 Somewhat cheap	103.6 94.6–112.8	+3.6%	+8.0% -15.0% to 28.0%	+3.5%
Crypto BTC-USD	+0.2 Fair	103.1 81.7–125.6	+3.1%	+3.0% -50.0% to 85.0%	-1.5%
Japan Equities EWJ	+0.1 Fair	100.6 93.6–107.8	+0.6%	+6.5% -12.0% to 23.0%	+2.0%
Real Estate VNQ	-0.5 Somewhat expensive	97.4 89.5–105.0	-2.6%	+6.0% -14.0% to 24.0%	+1.5%
Energy XLE	-0.6 Somewhat expensive	96.4 87.2–105.4	-3.6%	+3.0% -20.0% to 25.0%	-1.5%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-1.2 Somewhat expensive	94.4 87.2–101.4	-5.6%	+5.5% -13.0% to 22.0%	+1.0%
Metals GLD	-1.5 Expensive	89.4 78.8–99.7	-10.6%	+1.5% -22.0% to 24.0%	-3.0%
US Equities SPY	-1.7 Expensive	91.8 84.1–99.0	-8.2%	+6.0% -14.0% to 22.5%	+1.5%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

+0.9Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 34.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 80%

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.8Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 36.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 64% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 60%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+0.8Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 36.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 64% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 50%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+0.6Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 39.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 67%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

+0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 46.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 10–210 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

+0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 47.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 69%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-0.5Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 59.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 41% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 53%

Energy

XLE · US Energy Sector

-0.6Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 60.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 47%Historical base rate: 61%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-1.2Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 70.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 68%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.5Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 75.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 24% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 43%Historical base rate: 72%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.7Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 78.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 85%

Sources7

1
S&P 500 Earnings Season Preview: Q3 2026
FactSet
2
Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2026)
U.S. Energy Information Administration
3
Emerging Markets P/E & Valuations
Siblis Research
4
P/E Ratios by Country
Siblis Research
5
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) — Portfolio Characteristics
BlackRock iShares
6
Goldhub Insights: Posts from August 2026
World Gold Council
7
MVRV Explained: The On-Chain Metric That Reads Bitcoin's Cost Basis
BIT

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: cxpw-vl-2026-10-21-001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.