Japan Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 47.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.6
- Upside to median
- +0.6%
- Last close
- $95.72
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-10-21
64/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -12.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Assumed dividend yield near 2.3% plus haircut consensus earnings growth with no valuation-convergence term; dispersion reflects historical Japanese equity and yen volatility for a U.S.-dollar investor.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -2.0%
Dividend yield plus earnings growth at a stable multiple; dispersion narrowed for annualization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.52%
- Modeled excess
- +2.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.52% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.