China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 36.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 64% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 105.4
- Upside to median
- +5.4%
- Last close
- $50.05
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +33.0%
- P75
- +20.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Assumed dividend yield near 2.8% plus low-to-mid single-digit earnings growth and a partial valuation-convergence term; wide dispersion reflects historical Chinese equity volatility and policy risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +11.5%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -6.0%
Dividend yield plus earnings growth with one third of the median fair-value gap closing over three years; dispersion narrowed for annualization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.52%
- Modeled excess
- +3.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.52% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 105.4 | $50.05 | +7.5% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $24.54 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $3.98 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $31.02 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $15.80 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $41.11 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $22.01 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $32.94 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $23.74 | — |