Developed Pacific Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWA · Australia Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 70.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 94.4
- Upside to median
- -5.6%
- Last close
- $29.23
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-10-21
59/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -13.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Assumed dividend yield near 3.5% plus low-to-mid single-digit earnings growth and a negative valuation-convergence term; dispersion reflects historical Australian equity and currency volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.0%
Dividend yield plus earnings growth with one third of the median fair-value gap closing over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.52%
- Modeled excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.52% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.