Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 34.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 104.6
- Upside to median
- +4.6%
- Last close
- $87.58
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +16.5%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -1.5%
- P10
- -11.0%
71% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Assumed dividend yield of about 3% plus mid-single-digit earnings growth and a small partial valuation-convergence term; dispersion reflects historical European equity volatility including currency effects for a U.S.-dollar investor.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.5%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +3.5%
- P10
- -1.0%
Dividend yield plus earnings growth with one third of the median fair-value gap closing over three years; dispersion narrowed for annualization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.52%
- Modeled excess
- +3.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.52% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.