Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 39.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 103.6
- Upside to median
- +3.6%
- Last close
- $58.18
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.0%
- P75
- +18.5%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -15.0%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Assumed dividend yield near 3% plus haircut consensus earnings growth and a partial valuation-convergence term; dispersion reflects historical emerging-market equity and currency volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.5%
- P75
- +11.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -2.5%
Dividend yield plus earnings growth with one third of the median fair-value gap closing over three years; dispersion narrowed for annualization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.52%
- Modeled excess
- +3.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.52% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +0.6Somewhat cheap | 103.6 | $58.18 | +8.0% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $94.20 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $108.99 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $156.88 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $42.51 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $65.32 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $47.27 | — |