US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 78.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 91.8
- Upside to median
- -8.2%
- Last close
- $773.09
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.5%
- P75
- +14.5%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -14.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Shareholder yield near 2% plus haircut consensus earnings growth, less a valuation-convergence drag from the 8% gap to median fair value; dispersion from historical U.S. large-cap volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.0%
Shareholder yield plus earnings growth with one third of the median fair-value gap closing over three years and partial margin normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.52%
- Modeled excess
- +1.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.52% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The edge over Treasuries is thin relative to equity risk.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.7Expensive | 91.8 | $773.09 | +6.0% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $527.70 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $276.48 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $725.20 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $216.64 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $556.70 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $56.04 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $168.31 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $178.94 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $115.53 | — |