Metals
Today’s price sits at the 75.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 24% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 89.4
- Upside to median
- -10.6%
- Last close
- $378.95
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +1.5%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -22.0%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; continued official-sector demand offset by a partial pull toward modeled fair value and a high real-yield opportunity cost; dispersion from historical gold volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +7.5%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -9.0%
Inflation-linked drift less one third of the median fair-value gap over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.52%
- Modeled excess
- -3.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.52% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. Treasuries offer a higher median with far lower uncertainty.