Fixed Income
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
BND · US Broad Bond Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 36.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 64% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.3
- Upside to median
- +1.3%
- Last close
- $70.75
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-10-21
84/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +11.0%
- P75
- +8.3%
- Median
- +5.6%
- P25
- +2.8%
- P10
- -0.5%
88% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting yield to maturity of about 5.4% plus modest price effects from the justified-yield scenarios; dispersion from plausible 1-year yield changes applied to a 5.7-year duration.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.3%
- P75
- +7.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +4.0%
- P10
- +2.5%
Starting yield with reinvestment and duration roll-down over three years; price effects partly offset by reinvestment at the new yield.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.52%
- Modeled excess
- +1.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.52% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 101.3 | $70.75 | +5.6% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $76.98 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $90.23 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $103.21 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.29 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $105.55 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $80.24 | — |